经济学家鲁政委:一线城市会率先完成楼市筑底,明年市场预期更积极_腾讯新闻

### \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection"\u003e\u003cp style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 8px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 32px; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; outline: 0px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; display: flex; flex-flow: row; 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transparent"\u003e对话嘉宾:鲁政委\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; margin-top: -20px; outline: 0px; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-self: flex-start; background-color: transparent; border-right: 1px solid rgba(255, 141, 150, 0.13); border-top-right-radius: 0px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 0%; height: auto; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; padding: 5px; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; margin-bottom: 4px; outline: 0px; text-align: center" 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data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 12px; outline: 0px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.578px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e兴业银行首席经济学家\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.51px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; height: 1em; line-height: 1em; margin-top: -0.5em; outline: 0px; vertical-align: top; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 80px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e“\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(153, 0, 0); display: inline-block; margin-left: -0.6em; margin-top: 1.6em; outline: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible; width: 4em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 0em; margin-top: -0.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 10px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 0.544px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.578px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e稳住楼市除了存量政策和增量政策的创新外,还需要更加有效的宏观政策协同发力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.578px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e中房报记者 苗野丨北京报道\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e“我们对2025年的楼市预期可以更积极些。”兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委表示。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e今年以来,从中央到地方,推出了利好楼市的“政策组合拳”,颇为重磅,也使多地楼市出现积极变化,尤其是10月份以来,止跌回稳初见成效,不少城市楼市“银十”变“金十”,较高热度一路延续至年末;多地售楼处人气攀升,“日光盘”重现;房地产经纪人二手房的带看量、成交量翻倍……\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e数据显示,10月份和11月份,全国新建商品房交易网签面积连续两个月实现同比、环比正增长。预期也在改善,PMI调查显示,11月份房地产业市场预期指数比10月份回升1.1个百分点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e稳住楼市,这也是一周内中央政治局会议与中央经济工作会议先后发出的强烈信号,“指挥棒”挥动之际,房地产市场信心再次得到有效提振。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e“2024年,我们可以从市场中看到楼市止跌回稳的一些早期端倪,楼市整体正在悄然新变。”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e鲁政委认为,房地产政策基调从“房住不炒”转向“止跌回稳”,这是历史性的转变,意味着房地产行业进入到了一个新的阶段。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.54px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e━━━━\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e楼市“止跌回稳”的早期端倪已现\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e中国房地产报:中央政治局会议、中央经济工作会议均明确提出“要稳住楼市”,对于这一定调您怎么看?如何理解“稳住”两个字的意义?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e鲁政委:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e我个人认为,稳住楼市需要一个“KPI”,它要有几个指标的考核:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e一是成交量。持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳,此处“止跌”就包括成交量止跌,甚至成交量有明显回升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e二是价格。稳住楼市既要稳市场交易,也要稳价格,在一系列利好政策刺激下,房地产市场交易趋于活跃,成交价格也要止跌回稳。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e三是范围。促进楼市止跌回稳,是每个城市都止跌回稳,还是不同城市不同区域止跌回稳,这是口径选择。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e所以,我建议这个KPI聚焦人口流向,按照人口加权去计算楼市成交量和价格的变化,进而整体观察中国楼市是不是在趋于“止跌回稳”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e中国房地产报:您怎么评判2024这一年来房地产行业的发展?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e鲁政委:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e其实在2024年,我们已经可以能看到楼市止跌回稳的一些早期端倪,整体房市的悄然生变。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e从2024年年初推动建立城市房地产\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e融资\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e协调机制以来,商业银行不断加大对“白名单”项目的支持力度,叠加中央层面从“房住不炒”向“严控增量”、 促进房地产市场“止跌回稳”的政策调整,以及打出“四个取消、四个降低、两个增加”组合拳,这些政策所释放的累积效应正在逐步显现。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e从新房销售来看,若以前一年(2023年)的商品房销售面积作为本年度商品房销售的计划目标,今年完成进度已和去年相当且快于2022年。所谓量在价先,自9月底一线城市楼市政策调整以来,北京、上海、广州、深圳新房销售明显好转;从一线城市商品房价格来看,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比已在今年5月触底,之后环比逐渐回升,其中上海新建商品房价格环比已无负值。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e总体来看,房地产政策基调从“房住不炒”转向“止跌回稳”,这是历史性的转变,意味着房地产行业进入到了一个新的阶段。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.54px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(171, 25, 66)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e━━━━\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e一线城市楼市或率先完成筑底\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e中国房地产报:2024年以来,为解决房地产行业发展问题,政府出台了一系列积极政策,涉及“白名单”、“收储”、调整限购限售政策、利率调整等,您如何看待这些政策及市场效果?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e鲁政委:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e整体来看,在一揽子政策作用下,房地产市场从销售、拿地到融资等各环节都出现了不同程度的变化,市场预期和购房者信心有所恢复。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e“白名单”以城市为主体、以项目为中心,区分房地产集团债务风险和项目风险,集中有限资源推动在建已售住宅项目交付。从协调机制项目贷后情况来看,项目纳入协调机制之后,虽还未交付,但大大提振了居民信心,项目去化情况较纳入协调机制前明显好转。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e举个例子,兴业银行重庆分行某项目在纳入协调机制之后的3个月内,实现累计销售量已达到前3年开盘后的平均水平。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e城中村改造货币化安置措施有助于加速高能级城市库存的去化。一线城市新房住宅库存去化程度相对领先,截至2024年10月,一线城市商品房出清周期为16个月,有数据的25个二线城市平均出清周期为20.3个月,其他32个城市为25.7个月。不过,最终去化速度和去化程度还取决于城中村改造的推进速度和货币化安置的细则设置。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e目前,各项政策在实践中进一步规范、精准、有力,预期一线城市房地产市场或率先完成筑底。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e中国房地产报:对于2025年房地产市场有什么预判?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e鲁政委:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e从中央政治局会议到中央经济工作会议,一致定调:2025年,要稳住楼市,持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳,加力实施城市更新、城中村和危旧房改造,这是对房地产市场的最积极表态。经过3年多的调整,我觉得2025年可以对楼市的展望更积极,预期也更积极。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e中国房地产报:接下来,房地产市场还需要做好哪些工作?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 91, 172)"\u003e鲁政委:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e从需求端来看,住房可负担水平有所改善,当前房价收入比已回落至2015年的水平之下,但居民的偿债压力仍待减轻,2024年有房贷的居民按揭贷款偿债率仍高于2014~2015年。另外,租金收益率逐渐回升,随着当前住房贷款利率的进一步调降,贷款利率和租金收益率之差已收窄至低于2014~2015年的水平,表明购房的性价比正逐步提升。不过收入预期影响居民加杠杆的意愿,截至2024年9月,全国消费者收入预期指数录得94.2,处于历史偏低水平,收入不稳定是当前居民选择不购房的首要原因。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e从供给端来看,不论狭义住宅库存还是广义住宅库存的去化周期都高于上一轮周期的最高水平,说明房地产市场库存仍待进一步去化。政策上提出通过货币化安置等方式,新增实施100万套城中村和危旧房改造,若聚焦到35个大中城市,将大幅加快大中城市的住房去库存周期。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.75em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e参考海外经验,我国房地产销售逐渐接近底部区间,2025年房地产销售与投资降幅均有望收窄。考虑到“严控增量、优化存量”是下一阶段房地产政策的主要方向,在当前整体去库存周期仍高的情况下,土地供应延续收紧态势。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 48px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e我国城镇化率、人均住宅面积等住房需求因素较发达国家仍有一定提升空间,稳住楼市除了存量政策和增量政策的创新外,还需要更加有效的宏观政策协同发力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e值班编委:李红梅\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e责任编辑:马琳 刘亚\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: left"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e审读:戴士潮\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003chr style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 25.6px; outline: 0px; padding-left: 0em; padding-right: 0em; text-align: center; visibility: visible"/\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e中国房地产报版权所有\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e未经授权不得转载以及任何形式使用\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: 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