清华大学国际关系研究院院长阎学通：为什么中国不惧怕特朗普_腾讯新闻

么洛 • 2025年01月29日 09:16 • 百科经验 • 阅读 196

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\u003cdiv class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: center; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; vertical-align: middle; width: 40%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box-special-style="width"\u003e\u003csection style="margin: -7px -36px; max-width: unset !important; transform: scale(0.6); transform-origin: center center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="margin: 10px 0%; transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px)" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-image: linear-gradient(135deg, rgb(254, 182, 146) 10%, rgb(234, 84, 85) 100%); height: 5px; width: 100%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003csvg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0" data-exeditor-arbitrary-svg=""\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; vertical-align: top; width: 20%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box-special-style="width"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(165, 78, 0); font-size: 15px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(165, 78, 0)"\u003e民智编译\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: center; display: inline-block; flex: 100 100 0%; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="margin: -7px -36px; max-width: unset !important; transform: rotateZ(180deg) scale(0.6); transform-origin: center center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="margin: 10px 0%; text-align: right; transform: translate3d(2px, 0px, 0px)" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-image: linear-gradient(135deg, rgb(254, 182, 146) 10%, rgb(234, 84, 85) 100%); height: 5px; width: 100%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003csvg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0" data-exeditor-arbitrary-svg=""\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; box-shadow: rgb(158, 158, 158) 0px 0px 4px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; vertical-align: top; width: 95%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box-special-style="width"\u003e\u003csection style="float: none" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003csvg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="float: left; line-height: 0; vertical-align: top; width: 0" data-exeditor-arbitrary-svg=""\u003e\u003c/svg\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="float: none" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="margin: 12px 0% 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 2; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e导语：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e早在特朗普的第一任期，美国政府的对华“敌视”战略就不断翻新。2024年美国大选期间，特朗普也在各种公共场合将中国塑造成一个“强大的对手”，并自诩“只有自己能够战胜”。随着特朗普2.0时代即将拉开大幕，美中关系预计将进一步恶化。然而，中国决策层对特朗普并不感到恐惧。由特朗普第一任期的执政过往可知，其经济保护主义政策将导致更多的争端和紧张局势，中国有信心应对这些挑战。此外，特朗普的“美国优先”政策也驱使美国盟友不断强化对华关系，以平衡美国对外决策的不确定性。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e总体而言，在即将到来的特朗普第二任期内，中美之间的竞争可能加剧，但由于特朗普缺乏深厚的意识形态承诺，双方的冲突不太可能发展成类似冷战时期那样的毁灭性对抗。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e与特朗普的“咄咄逼人”相比，中国决策层有足够的信心与韧性去应对特朗普的回归，并保证由此带来的中美关系波动不会影响全球局势与国内发展大局。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e本文编译自《外交事务》（Foreign Affairs）评论文章，原标题为《为什么中国不惧怕特朗普》（Why China Isn’t Scared of Trump），作者是世界知名国际关系理论家、清华大学国际关系研究院院长阎学通教授。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e文章略有删改，仅代表作者观点，供读者思考，与公众号立场无关。如有侵权，请联系删除。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 2; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e美国当选总统\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e唐纳德·特朗普\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e在多年以来不断抨击中国，声称其是“美国众多问题的根源”。他曾痛惜中美之间存有巨大的贸易赤字，并指责中国导致美国核心工业带“空心化”。特朗普还一再炮制“新冠病毒源于中国”的谬论，严重干扰国际抗疫事业。近期，他将美国的“毒品危机”也归咎于中国，指控中国通过芬太尼“攻击”美国。特朗普一再于各类公共场合上自诩为“唯一能够战胜‘中国威胁’的人”。在他的第一任期内，他颠覆了数十年来美国的政策惯例，发动了与中国的\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_1--\u003e贸易战\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_1--\u003e。特朗普第二任期不断迫近，各种迹象表明，中美关系将更为紧张。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e然而，中国领导人并不惧怕特朗普的回归。中方始终认为，特朗普的贸易保护主义政策只会加剧美国国内危机，纵使会对中美贸易关系产生波动，但中国有信心加以应对。此外，特朗普对传统盟友的“背刺”也会为中国的“纵横捭阖”提供更为广阔的空间，加速国际格局的重组。尽管特朗普一再表示“中国才是美国的头号大敌”，但中国领导层丝毫不担心他的回归——\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e中国有足够的定力与实力应对这个“不理智”的美国执剑人。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0.5em; overflow: hidden" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(124, 15, 15); display: inline-block" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(124, 15, 15); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.3; padding-left: 0.2em; padding-right: 0.2em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 22px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; padding-left: 0.5em; padding-right: 0.5em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e不受特朗普的影响\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e在中国看来，2024年美国大选的结果对美国对华政策的整体轨迹没有太大影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e无论谁入主白宫，下一任美国总统都将遵循民主、共和两党几乎唯一一个共识，即中国是对美国全球主导地位的所谓“最大威胁”，对华威胁应当强化而非减弱。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e不过，新任总统一定会在政策细节和施政风格上与上届总统有着明显区分。在特朗普的第二个任期内，其对华政策不仅与拜登政府的既定方针不同，也会与特朗普第一任期有着较大差异。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e例如，特朗普已经将部分重要的涉外职务或国家安全职务分给了党内极右翼分子，这些人的平均年龄不过50岁上下，这与特朗普第一任期的景况大为不同。特朗普第二任期的外交和国家安全团队成长于中国不断崛起的时期，他们更加直观地感受到中国对美国全球霸主地位的所谓“撼动”与“冲击”，更赞成采取更极端和胁迫性的政策来压制中国的发展。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e这种强硬做法在特朗普第一任期以来发生重大变化的地缘政治环境中可能并不奏效。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e特朗普刚刚入主白宫时，大多数国家仍将其视作一个传统的、理性决策的大国领导人，美国主要盟友仍希望特朗普致力于捍卫它们的安全利益。甚至中国也曾在特朗普第一个任期就任的第一年就邀请他访问北京；俄罗斯也邀请特朗普于2017年访俄并参与纪念二战胜利庆祝活动，尽管在2014年时，美国曾因克里米亚问题制裁俄罗斯。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 1.6" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160)"\u003e▲ 2017年11月，特朗普携夫人梅拉尼娅访问中国\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e不过，当特朗普即将再次执政后，大多数国际领导人已经开始筹划如何让自己的国家免受“特朗普冲击”的不确定性。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e法国总统马克龙已于12月初邀请特朗普前往巴黎，并希望向特朗普强调“欧洲人才是欧洲安全议题的主导者”；德国和日本担心特朗普会要求更多的财力投入至美国在当地的军事存在中；韩国则担心因“戒严风波”导致的国内时局动荡会成为特朗普“趁火打劫”榨取经济利益的筹码。此外，特朗普将不得不直面应对美俄两国因乌克兰问题爆发的实质性冲突。美国对\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_2--\u003e以色列\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_2--\u003e“无条件”的支持也成为揭露美国所谓“捍卫国际发与基本人权”虚伪面目的利器，有待特朗普的“解套”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e自特朗普上台以来，中国应对美国政策波动性与不确定性的经验愈加丰富。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e早在奥巴马时代的“重返亚太”战略开始，中美之间的“跨太平洋竞争”就已经拉开帷幕。在接下来的几年里，面对奥巴马、特朗普和拜登政府的不同对华策略（注：奥巴马和拜登试图通过小多边机制围堵中国，特朗普的对华遏制则更具单边主义色彩），中国的应对游刃有余。有了这些经验，中国领导人对特朗普连任的前景并不担心，甚至在11月还公开发布了关于如何处理下一阶段中美关系的战略指导方针。根据中国驻洛杉矶总领事馆于11月17发布的立场文件，中国将坚持“以相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢为原则”处理中美关系。“相互尊重”表明，中国将“来而不往非礼也”，一旦特朗普采取任何挑衅行动，中方将予以报复；“和平共处”意味着中国将寻求与特朗普就管理分歧和冲突进行对话，以稳定双边关系；“合作共赢”是指在中美有共同利益的全球性问题上开展联合工作，例如结束俄乌冲突、制定\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_3--\u003e人工智能\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_3--\u003e法规、遏制非法药物流动等\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0.5em; overflow: hidden" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(124, 15, 15); display: inline-block" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(124, 15, 15); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.3; padding-left: 0.2em; padding-right: 0.2em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 22px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; padding-left: 0.5em; padding-right: 0.5em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e前方的动荡\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(160, 160, 160)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e特朗普有意在他的第二个任期内采取经济保护主义政策。他表示，他可能会对中国商品征收更多关税，对两国的资本、技术和人员流动施加更多限制，并遏制中美人文交流。这些决定必然会导致中美之间出现更多摩擦。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e拜登政府延长了特朗普第一个任期的高额关税政策，但主要侧重于将中国排除在技术供应链之外，并未寻求中美经济领域的全面脱钩。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e然而，在特朗普的第二个任期内，特朗普可能会更加努力地推动更广泛的脱钩断链，大幅减少中国产品在美国的市场份额。面对这样的态势，中国一定会采取反制措施。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e这种针锋相对的情势可能会将酝酿已久的中美贸易战推向新的高峰，并驱使着其他国家也争先恐后地采取保护主义政策，继而对全球经济造成破坏性后果。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e随着特朗普寻求贸易战升级，他的政府可能会加大对中国的军事压力。特朗普偏好对外霸凌和虚张声势的策略，例如在2017年朝鲜试射中程导弹后，他曾威胁要攻击朝鲜本土。特朗普提名的国务卿候选人马尔科·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）和国防部长提名人皮特·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）都被认为是具有强烈“反共”意识的对华“鹰派”。如果参议院批准了他们的提名，他们大概会鼓励特朗普在与中国发生军事紧张局势时采取更具危险性的军事策略。由于好战的言辞和莽撞的行径，美国极有可能引发类似于“2022年佩洛西窜访台湾事件”这样的危机。如果特朗普或他的官员最终引发类似事件并导致中美之间的紧张局势加剧，也就不足为奇了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e特朗普在第二任期内几乎肯定会对中美官方沟通渠道产生“寒蝉效应”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e在奥巴马政府时期，两国政府之间有90多个官方对话渠道。到特朗普的第一个任期结束时，这些渠道已经荡然无存。特朗普仍有可能暂停拜登政府建立的近20个中美官方沟通渠道，并建立直接由其监督管理的新渠道。中国将与特朗普接触时将格外谨慎，因为特朗普在2017年11月结束访问后不久就开启贸易摩擦的往事仍历历在目——这突出了特朗普难以捉摸的施政风格。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e除了两国政府龃龉不断，中美之间的敌意还可能上升至社会层面。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e民粹主义思潮在这两个国家都越来越强大，煽动了大国沙文主义的火焰。如果特朗普继续以经济措施威胁和针对中国，由此产生的中美间紧张政治局势将不可避免地鼓励各自人民之间的敌意。两国民众都习惯于将自己国内各种问题归因于大洋彼岸的对手。由于中美民间互信的“空洞化”，基于公共外交、文化外交和民间外交的两国良性沟通将举步维艰。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0.5em; overflow: hidden" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(124, 15, 15); display: inline-block" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(124, 15, 15); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline-block; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.3; padding-left: 0.2em; padding-right: 0.2em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 22px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: inline-block; padding-left: 0.5em; padding-right: 0.5em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e未来的中美关系会怎样走\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e特朗普第二任期可能会加剧中美之间的紧张关系，特朗普试图利用经济和军事压力来限制中国。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e然而，在实践中，特朗普的执政风格与施政重点或许会使中国受益。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e首先，特朗普对意识形态的斗争兴趣寥寥，他也不太可能热衷于干预中国内政。因此，特朗普第二任期内的中美竞争将更多局限在经贸领域与战略规划，不会升级为直球对决般的意识形态冲突。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e特朗普的政治孤立主义是其经济保护主义政策的对应物，这种政策取向的思潮将减少美国对传统盟友的战略性投资。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e特朗普长期以来一直谴责美国的盟友“免费”利用美国的资源和权力，这些抱怨可能会促使包括西欧和东亚在内的美国传统盟友趋向站到中美两强中间，加剧其“不选边站队”的趋势。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e以新加坡为例，2010年，随着中美竞争的加剧，新加坡采取了“对冲战略”——它依靠与中国的经济联系，同时依赖美国的安全保障，包括日本、德国、法国、英国和其他东盟成员国在内的其他国家纷纷效仿。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e自2022年以来，俄乌冲突震撼了许多西方国家，迫使它们与美国更紧密地保持一致。然而，如果特朗普像他在竞选期间承诺的那样减少对乌军事援助，那么人们对美国安全承诺的信心将会减弱。为了支撑本国经济以便更好支持乌克兰，许多欧洲国家可能会更偏好采取“对冲战略”，这将为中国提供与美国传统盟友建立经济合作的新机会。特朗普自诩为一个“和平缔造者”，声称自己能够“飞速解决俄乌冲突”，而中国也有意在和平解决区域争端领域发挥建设性作用，毕竟冲突延宕也不利于塑造一个有利于中国经济发展的国际环境。基于中俄之间的密切联系，中国可以借此发挥更多作用，适当与特朗普政府合作以找寻和平之路。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e特朗普还将力求避免与中国发生公开冲突。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e台海问题一直是中美政治摩擦的根源，但中国和美国不太可能因此发生直接冲突。未来四年里，中国会将注意力主要集中于发展经济上面。而就特朗普而言，他有着与华盛顿、林肯、小罗斯福相媲美、并尊为“史上最伟大的总统”之列的“野望”，因此他也会专注于国内政治、社会体制改革和恢复美国经济，不想卷入台海问题而顾此失彼，毕竟他为自己在第一个任期内没有发动过一场战争而感到非常自豪。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e中美之间不会爆发“新冷战”，因中美竞争与美苏竞争有着本质区别。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e前者是经济、技术领域的竞争，后者是意识形态、治理模式的竞争。中国无意改变美国的政治、社会制度，也无意在全球范围内推销、推广、推行自己的制度。在数字时代，安全和繁荣在很大程度上取决于技术进步。中美将在人工智能等领域的创新上展开较量，并在市场和高科技供应链上角力。两国不会寻求让其他国家转向它们钟爱的意识形态和治理体系。美苏两国大力通过代理人战争以传播两国政治制度，以致于全球南方国家至今也深受这种历史缘由的影响。历史已经证明，大国之间的代理人战争几乎没有什么用处。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(168, 31, 31)"\u003e中国没有兴趣改变另一个国家的意识形态，特朗普对传播美国价值观也没有兴趣。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_6--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e在大国竞争中，外交政策往往可能排在国内政策之后。尽管特朗普的孤立主义政策无疑为中国改善与美国盟友的关系创造了机会，但国内改革议程将真正决定两个大国之间竞争的进程。目前，中方领导人和特朗普团队都更关心国内事务，对国内议程的处理也将是很大程度上决定中美之间实力差距的缩小与扩大的重要变量。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 2" 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我是蔚蓝之海的签约作者[么洛],本篇文章《清华大学国际关系研究院院长阎学通：为什么中国不惧怕特朗普_腾讯新闻》主要讲述了:##################### \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection"\u00...

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