国债收益率持续下跌意味着什么?_腾讯新闻

### \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: right"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 11pt"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(214, 214, 214)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e头图由豆包生成,提示词:海浪、股票\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e近期,国内资本市场冰火两重天,A股依然萎靡不振,国债却是节节上升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e不久前,持续上升的国债价格终于让10年期国内人民币国债收益率首次跌破2%,这成了市场中令人瞩目的大事,因为收益率创下20多年来的新低了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e而且,收益率依然继续下行 (见下图),业内人士戏言道:“没有最低,只有更低”!\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e| 数据来源:英为财情\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e那么,国债收益率创出新低,其原因何在?对国内资本市场、对我们投资理财而言是挑战?还是机会?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; text-align: center; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Okx_C62PoSGgTqk1ZVpRC6TBlW-EmwOlGX-dgA_4yHRB8AA/641" data-width="640" data-height="53" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="640" height="auto" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e长期国债的收益率反映投资人对经济增长的预期\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e根据经济学的普遍观点,一个国家或地区的10年期主权债券的收益率通常约等于这个地方的长期实际GDP增长率,加上通胀率。这样一算,就知道投资人整体对国内长期经济增长与通胀的预期了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e我们目前官方的口径是GDP年增长5%,而市场却给予10年期国债1.7%的年收益率,要么官方过于乐观了,要么是投资人过于悲观了。当然,我希望是投资人的判断错了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e目前,国内10年国债收益率甚至低于被认为是长期经济低增长样板的日本的10年期国债收益率的水平了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e放眼全世界,2%以下的10年期国债收益率,也属于偏低的。下图分别是10年期美债以及欧债的收益率数据,都明显比国内要高。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OcTWB6aX4oGdcb1yMqZrcro7vhz_Gxohr4d3wKH_cIH0UAA/641" data-width="960" data-height="556" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="960" height="auto" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OE24NAJDad1DC6kyf3GP31O5QjRmCXSjKAw3Npa2julicAA/641" data-width="960" data-height="573" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="960" height="auto" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" class="qqnews_image_desc"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102)"\u003e| 数据来源:英为财情\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e当下中国经济处于调整周期,房地产与股市已经连续三年处于低迷状态,消费、就业依然承压,投资人认为经济复苏动力不足,且存在结构转型的不确定性,因而对股市或其他风险资产的信心不足,更倾向于购买安全资产(如国债)。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; text-align: center; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OdxlYbJvkMYRp5xyekQF4njdP2sZ7-eSdaKzHZoOviJjwAA/641" data-width="640" data-height="53" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="640" height="auto" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e展望未来,宏观政策该如何应对?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e按国债市场投资人的预期,我们将进入类似之前很多年美国和日本的低利率时代了。而长期国债的收益率“没有最低,只有更低”,反映了投资人对经济前景的不乐观预期……\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e此时,12月份政治局会议所官宣的“适度宽松的货币政策”以及“更加积极的财政政策”应该加速落地了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e比如,货币政策方面,建议立即大幅降息,因为降息能减轻企业与居民的债务负担,特别是房东们的房贷还款压力,有利于稳定房价。如果把无风险收益率降到为零的话,房贷的利率就在1%~1.5%之间,房东们的压力得到了舒缓,房子租金回报率就会变得相对有吸引力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e比如,财政政策方面,可以考虑加大居民养老、医疗、子女教育的保障性投入,卸下老百姓所背负的“三座大山”,则必然敢于消费、愿意消费,同时,如能直接给居民按人发放现金消费券,则更有利于拉动消费,有助于推动经济走稳而回升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e有不少专家担心如果大幅降息会加剧人民币的贬值压力,我不以为然:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e根据宏观经济学101课程告诉我们的基本原理,一个国家与地区的货币长期走势强弱由其货币购买力决定,人民币的实际购买力非常强,如果经济复苏稳健,则能进一步吸引国际投资人配置人民币资产,从而加大对人民币的需求,进而具备长期升值潜力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e而人民币汇率短期走弱,对国内经济而言同样好处不少——\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e缓解了国内的资产泡沫压力,因为国内资产以美元计价的估值就下来了,有利于稀释国内的房地产泡沫,有利于吸引国际投资者直接投资;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e人民币贬值有利于降低美元计价出口产品的价格,通过促进出口来拉动经济;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e也有利于直接改善出口企业的利润……\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e“人民币贬值,中国或成最大赢家”的说法,并不是全无道理。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e我认为,无论如何,是时候果断采取传说中的“超常规逆周期调节手段”来改变预期了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O4m7_rpxcRSixxJeaBoBaInPWqZs9E3_PsHysNyphqKOsAA/641" data-width="960" data-height="960" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="960" height="auto" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; text-align: center; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Ovj1zoRLllP29hPeghQ-Q7hNTP3zhvDKRd9blTmN-xgvQAA/641" data-width="640" data-height="53" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="640" height="auto" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e无风险收益率持续下行,\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; text-align: center; visibility: visible; white-space: normal" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e为资产配置带来哪些新机会?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e10年期的国债收益率下行,代表国内无风险资产收益率的下降。尽管国债收益率下降可能对股市有一定提振作用,尤其是那些对利率敏感的行业(如房地产、金融)。但收益率下降也反映出投资人对经济的悲观情绪,整体市场可能依旧承压。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e同时,债券收益率下降意味着价格上涨,债券市场继续吸引资金流入。不过持有的收益率持续走低,今后也难再有配置的价值了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e10年期国债收益率也是吸引国际资本流入的重要因素。收益率下跌可能会在短期减弱人民币资产对外资的吸引力,导致资本外流压力增大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e而长期利率的下降,可能压缩银行的净息差(贷款与存款利率的差距),从而影响银行盈利能力。这一点已经被欧洲的银行在2009~2020年间的普遍经营困难现象所验证。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e那么普通投资人在资产配置方面该如何应对?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e我认为,宽松的货币政策预期下,国内股票市场至少存在结构性的机会:随着国债收益率的下降,投资者需要寻求有更高稳定回报率的资产,分红稳定、股息率高的优质蓝筹股或能成为一个重要选择,一些高成长性的科技公司也受益于低利率的融资环境而能取得创新方面的突破。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e公司债也是配置上值得考虑的资产:在国债收益率下降的背景下,投资者会寻找收益较高的公司债。尤其是那些信用评级较好的企业债券,提供相对较高的收益率。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e对刚需一族而言,如果购买力允许,可以考虑直接投资房地产:贷款利率如进一步走低,购房会重新成为一种具有吸引力的投资方式,尤其是在一线城市和二线城市的核心区域。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e黄金和其他\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e贵金属\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e在低利率和经济不确定性较高的情况下,作为避险资产也值得配置。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e利用合理合法的通道与工具,作全球资产配置,也是现实的选择。比如,配置10年期美债,当前收益率就有4%,可以很好地对冲国内人民币国债的收益率下行。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e总而言之,十年期国债收益率走低为投资者提供了多种选择,从股票市场到房地产,再到债券和贵金属,每种资产都有其独特的风险和回报特性。投资者通常需要根据自身的风险承受能力和长期投资目标来做出相应的资产配置方案。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center" class="js_darkmode__100"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(214, 168, 65)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e /// END /// \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center" class="js_darkmode__100"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003eNo.6125 原创首发文章|作者 黄凡‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111111;--weui-BG-1: #1E1E1E;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: 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rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111111;--weui-BG-1: #1E1E1E;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2C2C2C;--weui-BLUE-100: #10AEFF;--weui-BLUE-120: #0C8BCC;--weui-BLUE-170: #04344D;--weui-BLUE-80: #3FBEFF;--weui-BLUE-90: #28B6FF;--weui-BLUE-BG-100: #48A6E2;--weui-BLUE-BG-110: #4095CB;--weui-BLUE-BG-130: #32749E;--weui-BLUE-BG-90: #5AAFE4;--weui-BRAND-100: #07C160;--weui-BRAND-120: #059A4C;--weui-BRAND-170: #023A1C;--weui-BRAND-80: #38CD7F;--weui-BRAND-90: #20C770;--weui-BRAND-BG-100: #2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: 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