######################## \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection"\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: right"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(214, 214, 214)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e头图由豆包生成，提示词：纸币美元上的齿轮工具‍‍‍‍\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e虽然特朗普尚未入主白宫，但最近“关税大棒”的风已经刮得全球瑟瑟发抖。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e世人皆知，当选总统特朗普最钟情的工具就是“关税”（tariff）。根据美国法律，总统可以通过行政命令实施关税，这就使总统能够直接绕过国会推动其议程。对特朗普而言，关税被作为谈判筹码。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e在大选前，特朗普就表示要对中国征收60%的关税，并对世界其他国家征收10%的关税；11月25日，特朗普表示将在上任后对墨西哥和加拿大增加25%的关税（上述两国此前并不受关税影响），并对中国增加10%的关税（部分商品此前已经被加征25%关税）。该言论一度导致美元对加元跳升1%；而当周周末特朗普又发文称，如果金砖国家创建新货币或支持替代美元的其他货币，将对其征收100%的关税，再度导致相关货币跳水，离岸人民币对美元一度跌破7.3。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e问题在于，究竟关税如何影响全球和中国？会否导致美国通胀失控？产业链将如何变化？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e加征关税将如何影响中国经济\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e相比起60%的喊话，摩根士丹利美国公共政策团队认为，美国可能更倾向于分阶段对华加关税，预计按贸易规模加权后的有效关税，会在2025年年底上升到26%，2026年年底上升到36%，将有一个缓冲。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e在上述假设之下，加征关税对于中国出口的直接影响或与2018～2019年相当，而对企业信心和资本开支的间接影响可能较为温和。主要原因在于国内外企业在过去七年里重新布局了全球供应链，能够更好地应对贸易摩擦。另外，美国在中国商品出口中的份额也从2017年的19%降至现在的15%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e｜中国通过绕道出口和开辟新出口目的地实现了供应链重塑。来源：摩根士丹利\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e｜尽管美国减少了自华进口，但中国仍维持了全球出口份额。来源：摩根士丹利\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e研究显示，中国企业当前已将供应链多元化，新出口目的地增加。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e相比2017年，中国对美国出口的份额下降5.4%（不过部分出口通过东南亚等国家转口），对欧洲下降3.1%，对日本下降2.2%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e相反，出口份额上升的经济体有，俄罗斯（上升1.3%）、东盟（上升3.5%）、墨西哥（上升0.9%）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e此外，在全球绿色产品出口中，中国的份额也在攀升。例如，锂电池占比高达51%（2018年为36%）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e｜来源：本文作者制作并翻译。CEIC, DataWeb, 摩根士丹利研究\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e但挑战在于，如果美国也对全球其他国家施加10%的统一关税，则全球需求将进一步承压，中国绕道出口美国的难度也会增加。同时，全球供应链割裂风险的上升，也将削弱企业信心。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e从汽车、家电行业看关税影响\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e面对后续的外部风险，投资者高度关注相关行业将受到的影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e就汽车产业链而言，高盛汽车行业分析师在报告中提及，面对潜在的关税，该机构所覆盖的整车厂受到的影响非常有限，因为2024年前9个月中国对美国和加拿大的汽车出口量仅为10万辆（主要是Polestar和沃尔沃），占汽车总出口量的2.4%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e目前，东南亚和南美是中国新能源汽车出口的主要目的地，分别占比17%和16%；对于燃油车，东欧/中亚、南美和\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_1--\u003e中东\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_1--\u003e是主要出口市场，占比分别为33%、20%和18%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e不过，上述机构覆盖的汽车零部件供应商目前有11%～26%的收入来自美国，其中2%～12%直接从中国出口。但大多数头部公司正在北美建立或提高产能，正在尽量减少对中美出口的敞口。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e假设短期内中国汽车供应商无须将关税负担转嫁给上游二级供应商或下游客户，OEM客户将承担很大一部分潜在关税成本，而根据2018年关税上调期间福耀玻璃的案例研究显示，福耀玻璃能够将50%以上的关税负担转嫁给下游客户。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e但也有机构人士对笔者表示，当年关税远低于未来潜在的关税水平，转嫁程度有待观察。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e此外，亦有电芯产业人士表示，面临当前的价格战，国内电芯企业利润率约10%，而若进一步加征双位数关税，与在美国建厂可以获得的补贴比例相比，就缺乏竞争优势。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e就家电等消费品来看，白电公司受影响最小，主要原因是它们直接出口美国的业务占比较小、海外产能不断扩大以及相关企业议价能力相对较强。但部分小家电或新兴消费电子公司可能受到较大影响，因为其来自美国的收入和利润占比较大，而且大多数公司的大部分产品仍依赖国内供应链。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003ch3 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e具体来看，就白电行业而言，海外投行的分析显示：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 185, 149)"\u003e1、\u003cx-link data-widget="link" data-label="海尔" data-link="https://www.sogou.com/tx?bddn=8067508597901328\u0026amp;sourceid=1_00_10\u0026amp;query=海尔" data-machine="pseudo_tag_insert_qb_word"\u003e海尔\u003c/x-link\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e影响最小：尽管海尔约30%的收入和利润来自美国，但其在美国的本土化生产比例高达80%，因此受到的关税影响较小。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e潜在风险：如果美国的关税政策对零部件来源提出更严格要求（如《通胀削减法案》），那么海尔受到的影响可能会更大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 185, 149)"\u003e2、海信家电\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e受关税影响最大：海信家电对美国的出口利润率较低（仅为低个位数），如果加征关税成本无法转嫁，可能会导致对美出口业务亏损。但其对美国的直接出口收入占比较小（预计2024年为3%/2%）。若加征关税超过20%，公司可能会考虑暂停对美国出口。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 185, 149)"\u003e3、\u003cx-link data-widget="link" data-label="美的集团" data-link="https://www.sogou.com/tx?bddn=8067508597901328\u0026amp;sourceid=1_00_10\u0026amp;query=美的集团" data-machine="pseudo_tag_insert_qb_word"\u003e美的集团\u003c/x-link\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e关税风险较可控：美的在多个家电品类中具有全球领先的生产制造规模和成本优势，议价能力较强。为了应对美国关税风险，美的在泰国等地扩大了产能。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e即使加征20%的关税，若成本无法转嫁，预计会影响7%的利润，但若关税成本的一半被转嫁，影响将减少至4%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch3 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e就传统小家电行业而言，影响也有所分化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 185, 149)"\u003e4、苏泊尔\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e关税影响最小：\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_2--\u003e苏泊尔\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_2--\u003e对美国市场的依赖较小（预计2024年美国业务占公司总收入的3%）。此外，苏泊尔主要为母公司SEB集团代工，如果加征关税，可以将更多生产转移至越南工厂，进一步减轻影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 185, 149)"\u003e5、新宝股份\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e受关税影响较大：新宝股份对美国市场的依赖较强（预计2024年美国市场收入占比为26%），且其产品大部分在中国生产。如果关税无法转嫁，可能会面临较大的成本压力。不过，印尼工厂的扩展可能缓解部分影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch3 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e部分消费电子行业公司可能受到的冲击较大：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(165, 200, 255)"\u003e1、安克创新\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e受关税冲击较大：安克创新高度依赖美国市场和中国供应链。若美国加征关税，可能会面临更大的成本压力，因为该公司尚未大规模规划海外生产布局。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch4 style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(165, 200, 255)"\u003e2、石头科技与科沃斯\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h4\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e石头科技和科沃斯均在越南设有生产基地，以应对美国关税风险。石头科技的海外市场布局较为多元，预计关税影响较小。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Ol_TvB3Fd61KiG3dI8mMw10G0P1-NWHO6n8AWdTFJFj7wAA/641" data-width="580" data-height="330" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="580" height="330" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_7--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e“双反”影响东南亚对中国企业吸引力\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e还值得一提的是，2024年5月，美国商务部启动对东南亚四国（越南、泰国、马来西亚、\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_3--\u003e柬埔寨\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_3--\u003e）的双反调查，其中反补贴初裁结果已于10月公布。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e11月29日，美国商务部公布东南亚四国反倾销税率初步裁定结果，涉及国内主要企业相关产能的税率落在21.3%～77.9%区间内，平均值为53%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e由于不少\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_4--\u003e光伏\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_4--\u003e企业通过东南亚对美国出口产品，此调查的影响也备受关注。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e未来，东南亚市场对中国光伏企业吸引力有所减弱。一方面，经过多年发展，东南亚已经培养出自己的品牌和技术人员，例如Vina Solar等。这些本土品牌逐渐占据市场份额，使得中国企业进入难度增加。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e另一方面，目前市场情况欠佳，当地政府对于新进入者提供的支持有限。因此，中国企业若要进入该市场，需要找到强有力的当地合作伙伴，共同投资并分享风险，而不是单独进行大规模投资。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e业内专家认为，如果希望避开这些关税，应考虑柬埔寨或缅甸等国家。此外，这些东南亚地区主要为满足美国市场需求而定制，因为美国市场价格较高，可以完全覆盖东南亚地区的成本。而如今，一些光伏企业选择在中东建厂有多个考虑因素，部分也考虑到了东南亚市场的逆风。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e不过，中东地区光伏产能布局面临多重挑战。首先是缺水问题，中东属于沙漠地带，而光伏电池片制造过程中需要大量清洁用水，这对工厂运营带来困难。此外，当地土地和员工培训成本较高，也增加了整体生产成本；其次，当地政府和合作伙伴支持力度不确定。虽然一些国家提供土地免租金等优惠政策，但设备所有权和投资比例问题可能导致利益纠纷。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e目前来看，中资企业在中东建厂尚处于观望阶段。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e大部分公司正在评估天合在阿联酋和沙特的项目进展情况。如果这些项目顺利实施并取得成功，未来可能会有更多中国企业跟进。但由于中东缺水、高成本以及政策支持不确定性等问题，短期内大规模投资仍需谨慎观察。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e事实上，关税的目的也在于吸引企业在美国建厂。业内人士认为，特朗普政府如果希望吸引中国企业赴美投资建厂，需要提供实际激励措施，例如土地免税、建设补贴等。此前，中国企业如天合选择赴美建厂，是因为拜登政府推出了明确且实质性的激励方案（IRA政策）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e如果特朗普能够提出类似补贴政策，并希望工业回归美国，那么仍然存在继续谈判合作的空间，但必须明确包含新能源制造业领域。同时，美国政府还需通过具体项目来吸收这些企业生产出的高价组件，以确保其具备竞争力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e当然，能够进入美国市场的企业本来就不多，主要是一些头部企业，例如晶科、晶澳、隆基、天合等。这些企业在海外有基地，可以通过这些基地继续向美国出口产品，即使面临加税，其税率也不会比从中国直接出口高。而大部分没有美国业务的企业则无须特别应对。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; outline: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 10px; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003cimg src="https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OrOYRCjWhbmfwEbrxtGZ-VaERZeVmp_HraGLZMknVE8JsAA/641" data-width="960" data-height="596" data-exeditor-arbitrary-image="inline" width="960" height="596" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 100%"/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_9--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e金砖国家关税威胁论升温\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e另一种关税威胁近期也开始抬头——金砖国家关税论也被特朗普突然提及，引发全球关注。他称，如果金砖国家创建新货币或支持替代美元的其他货币，将对其征收100%的关税。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e但事实上，华尔街认为这更多是一种“言论威胁”，不过，这无疑也是特朗普对去美元化的一次明确反击，尤其是在金砖国家在最近的峰会上积极推动非美元贸易和交易的背景下。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e截至2024年9月，美国从金砖国家的年度进口总额达5880亿美元，其中中国（4330亿美元）、印度（860亿美元）、巴西（420亿美元）和南非（140亿美元）是主要进口来源。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e据测算，由于上一次贸易摩擦中，美国减少对中国的依赖，它从金砖国家的进口占总进口的比例从2018年峰值的26%降至目前的18%。若美国对这18%的进口征收100%关税，可能导致美国GDP下降约2.4个百分点，核心PCE（个人消费支出指数）出现约1.8个百分点的一次性影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e机构认为，这种经济影响对美国风险资产可能不利，新政府因此可能不愿看到这样的局面发生，因而实际落地的可能性较低。然而，金砖国家货币的风险溢价或因此上升，尤其是此前未被特别关注的货币（如印度卢比、南非兰特和巴西雷亚尔）。11月29日，印度公布GDP大幅低于预期，更加剧了这一担忧。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e与此同时，高盛认为特朗普的威慑，可能会减缓“金砖国家货币”的创建，尤其是像印度这样的重要成员国公开表示“减少使用美元并非印度经济政策的一部分”，未来需要继续关注金砖国家在这一问题上的回应。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e此外，金砖国家本币在国际贸易中的低调使用可能继续增加，这是近年来的趋势。尤其是人民币，在2023年全球支付中的份额翻倍至4.3%，现已占全球贸易融资的6%（与欧元相当）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_10--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 18px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 104, 39)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e移民问题比关税更影响美国通胀\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e面对关税威胁，各界近期还频频讨论的问题在于，美国会否被反噬？尤其是通胀会否重燃，并导致美联储难以继续降息？若部分制造品无法被取代，是否美国消费者只有接受，甚至这些产品可以加价？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e近期李迅雷在一次演讲中提及，当前中国对美出口商品约占美国全部进口商品的13%，占美国居民商品消费的6.5%，占美国居民总消费的不到2.5%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e2018年美国对中国商品加征关税后，没有导致美国通胀显著上行，但限制移民会带来短期通胀上升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e要知道，之所以过去两年美国通胀迟迟下不来，主要是因为“super core inflation”这个超级核心通胀，即服务业通胀。尽管大厂裁员，但例如餐厅缺服务员而导致时薪攀升，薪资对通胀-价格螺旋的推动不容小觑。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e换言之，未来特朗普限制非法移民甚至是移民的政策，可能会再度影响上述叙事。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e根据高盛的测算，去年美国的净移民达到约300万人，但2024年大幅放缓，预计在明年更严格的移民政策下将进一步下降。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e基于新发布的2023年《美国社区调查》（ACS）数据，机构分析了哪些行业最容易受到移民政策变化的影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e据估算，未经授权的移民占美国劳动力总数的约4.4%。然而，在一些行业，这一比例显著更高：如园林绿化和私人家庭服务约占20%，农作物生产17%，食品加工制造业15%，建筑业13%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e同时，未经授权的移民平均小时工资比同一行业的本地出生和授权移民非管理层工人低20%。这意味着雇主可能面临更高的工资成本。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e尽管如此，各界预计未来美国经济“硬着陆”可能性不大，因为当前服务业与消费依旧较强，支撑美国经济，但弱势体现在制造业和产出方面，制造业PMI收缩，工业产出增速同比接近0。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e美联储预测美国2024～2026年GDP增速均为2%，仍是软着陆情景，年内12月再降息25BP（基点）的概率加大，但2025年降息的预测已经大幅降低，市场的预测已经从9月的累计150BP掉至当前的90BP。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center" class="js_darkmode__97"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(214, 168, 65)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e /// END /// \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center" class="js_darkmode__100"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003eNo.6103 原创首发文章｜作者 周艾琳\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 16px; margin-right: 16px; padding: 10px; text-align: center" class="js_darkmode__100"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e风险提示：本文为个人观点，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND-BG-130: #1D7A48;--weui-BRAND-BG-90: #3EB575;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-0_5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-170: #052D4D;--weui-INDIGO-80: #40ABFF;--weui-INDIGO-90: 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