################## \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-variant-east-asian: normal; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; text-align: start; text-size-adjust: inherit; visibility: visible" class="js_darkmode__0" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; margin: 1em auto; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; width: 784px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; outline: 0px; padding: 1em; visibility: visible" class="js_darkmode__2" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e美、法都是联合国五大常任理事国。德国在欧盟与法国形成轴心。同时，美、法、德都是北约重要成员。在三国政权更迭以后，其内政外交必然面临种种变化。内政方面，三国在经济政策、税收政策方面，如何变？特朗普想让美国“再次伟大”，希望制造业回流美国。而马克龙、朔尔茨无一例外，首先该考虑自身位子能否保住。再考虑经济、民生。\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin-bottom: 16px; text-align: start" class="js_darkmode__3"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(61, 170, 214)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"\u003e文 | 海上客\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e法国总理巴尼耶当地时间12月5日向马克龙总统递交了辞呈。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e这当然意味着62年来首次——\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e法国政府被议会推翻。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e而也值得一书的是：2024年一年之内，法国第三次面临换总理。这走马灯的势头，是否止得住？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e与此同时，海叔注意到，德国方面也有情况。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e欧盟内部，法、德堪称主要国家。法、德之变，意味着什么？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" class="js_darkmode__5" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; margin-bottom: 7px; margin-top: 10px; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(217, 33, 66); border-radius: 100%; color: rgb(255, 255, 240); display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; height: 2.5em; line-height: 2.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; width: 2.5em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 255, 240)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e01\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp class="qqnews_image_desc" style="color: #666; font-size: 14px; text-align: center"\u003e马克龙（左）、巴尼耶  图：央视新闻\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e巴尼耶辞职，并不出乎意料。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e法国国民议会4日晚投票表决通过一项对政府的不信任动议。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e具体说，当天下午，法国国民议会就两项对政府不信任动议进行审议：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66)"\u003e由左翼阵营185名议员提交的不信任动议在表决中得到331票支持，超过通过不信任动议所需的至少288票；\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66)"\u003e另一项不信任动议由极右翼阵营140名议员提交，不再进行投票表决。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e事情的起因无非12月2日，巴尼耶绕过议会，强行通过一项社会保障法案，引发极右翼和左翼政党强烈不满！\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e简单说，巴尼耶想要在2025年法国财政预算中，达到政府降低开支，同时增加税收之目的。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e对于议员们来说，政府降低开支未必是他们不同意的事。但若要增税，自然是要动一些人的奶酪。看样子巴尼耶要动奶酪的范围挺大。看似他决心也大，议会不通过，他就想要使用法国宪法第49-3条款，不经议会表决，强行通过相关法案。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp class="qqnews_image_desc" style="color: #666; font-size: 14px; text-align: center"\u003e巴尼耶（右）被议会赶下台  图：新华社\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66)"\u003e可他如此举动，反而让议会中人团结起来，让他下台。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e哪怕3日晚，巴尼耶曾言，自己仍希望与玛丽娜·勒庞领导的极右翼国民联盟和其他政党就预算草案展开谈判，可从那时开始直至议会投票，看来已经没人愿意给他面子，或者说给他实施政治抱负的机会。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" class="js_darkmode__5" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; margin-bottom: 7px; margin-top: 10px; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(217, 33, 66); border-radius: 100%; color: rgb(255, 255, 240); display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; height: 2.5em; line-height: 2.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; width: 2.5em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 255, 240)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e02\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e出生于1951年的巴尼耶可不是愣头青。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e之所以今年9月法国总统马克龙挑选他出任法国总理，很大程度是因为此前担任总理的加布里埃尔·阿塔尔在担任总理以后，遭遇欧洲议会选举，马克龙所在的中间派联盟等遭遇败绩，之后启动国内国民议会选举。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e7月7日的议会选举投票率，创下了20多年来的最高纪录，尽管法国民众通过投票表达了自己的感受——他们不希望极右翼执政，但由于左、中、右三派都未能获得绝对多数，只得继续第二轮投票。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e就这么一阵折腾，尽管马克龙的总统大位暂时没啥危险，但阿塔尔肯定是无法再当总理了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e在这种情况下，马克龙从选择三十多岁的阿塔尔，到选择七十多岁的巴尼耶。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp class="qqnews_image_desc" style="color: #666; font-size: 14px; text-align: center"\u003e阿塔尔\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e那感觉，难道不是希望“老将出马，一个顶俩”？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e可巴尼耶似乎“战斗力”不如阿塔尔，仅仅过了三个月，就面临乌纱帽不保的局面。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e回看今年年初，法国总理还由博尔内女士担任呢！\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e从博尔内，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e到阿塔尔，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e再到巴尼耶，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e这样的走马灯，不知道马克龙是不是看得有点晕！\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e在海叔看来，哪怕马克龙再敬业、勤快，也不希望在换总理问题上加以表现。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66)"\u003e法国会否在一年内出现第四个总理，或者总理人选？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e那当然得看议会博弈和选举流程。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e眼门前，法国还是要思考日子怎么过下去的问题。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e据悉，如果12月20日前预算草案未得到国民议会通过，看守政府可以行使宪法权力，以法令形式通过一份预算。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e也就是说，巴尼耶正式“下班”以前真的可以硬推！\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e但有分析认为，此种硬推存在风险。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e这可是进一步彻底跟议会闹翻的举措。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e看守政府能否使用这项权力，在法国各界来说，本就属于有争议问题。有人认为这是“法律灰色地带”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e一旦强推，反对派势必闹出一番轩然大波。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e另一种更可行的做法是，看守政府提出特殊的紧急立法草案，以确保政府明年初有一份预算。但届时的预算只能延续今年财政支出限额和税收规定，巴尼耶减少财政赤字的努力将付诸东流。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp class="qqnews_image_desc" style="color: #666; font-size: 14px; text-align: center"\u003e巴尼耶\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66)"\u003e现在就看法国看守政府两害相权了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e另一方面，还是不得不说马克龙。在内政面临各种困局之际，马克龙此前却联合美国总统拜登，将不少精力用于斡旋黎巴嫩与\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e以色列\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e的冲突。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e有没有成效？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e看上去还真有。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e黎以停火协议也签了，拜登也对法国表扬了一番。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e甚至海叔要说，毕竟黎巴嫩曾受到法国的所谓的委任统治，法国在中东还有些影响力，因此拜登调停黎以关系需要法国来帮忙。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(163, 163, 163) !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 24px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible" class="js_darkmode__5" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; margin-bottom: 7px; margin-top: 10px; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: rgb(217, 33, 66); border-radius: 100%; color: rgb(255, 255, 240); display: inline-block; font-size: 15px; height: 2.5em; line-height: 2.5em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; width: 2.5em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.544px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(255, 255, 240)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e03\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp class="qqnews_image_desc" style="color: #666; font-size: 14px; text-align: center"\u003e马克龙\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e接下来：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e美国政府即将换班，特朗普将于2025年1月再次上台。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e法国政府随着巴尼耶的辞职，也要换班。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e还别忘了德国！事实上，德国“红绿灯”政府也差不多走到终点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e12月16日，德国总理朔尔茨将要求德国联邦议院进行信任投票，若信任投票不通过，则将提前启动大选的程序。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e哪怕混过这一关，明年2月或者3月，总得进行提前选举。反正，留给朔尔茨的机会不是太多了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp class="qqnews_image_desc" style="color: #666; font-size: 14px; text-align: center"\u003e朔尔茨（左）与德国外长贝尔伯克\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e海叔要说，美、法都是联合国五大常任理事国。德国在欧盟与法国形成轴心。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e同时，还要看到美、法、德都是北约重要成员。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e在三国政权更迭以后，其内政外交必然面临种种变化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e内政方面，三国在经济政策、税收政策方面，如何变？特朗普想让美国“再次伟大”，希望制造业回流美国。而马克龙、朔尔茨无一例外，首先该考虑自身位子能否保住。再考虑经济、民生。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66)"\u003e至于俄乌冲突方面，欧洲的损失怎么弥补，法国、德国目前继续援助乌克兰，明年是否难以为继，都是值得观察之事。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; height: auto; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle; width: 25%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_6--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; padding-left: 23px; padding-right: 23px; vertical-align: top; width: 100%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap" 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#DC3636;--weui-ORANGERED: #D14730;--weui-ORANGE: #E17719;--weui-YELLOW: #BB8E00;--weui-GREEN: #4F8400;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #2E8800;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06AE56;--weui-BRAND: #018942;--weui-BLUE: #007DBB;--weui-INDIGO: #0075E2;--weui-PURPLE: #6265F1;--weui-LINK: #576B95;--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #E17719;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06AE56;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007DBB;--weui-REDORANGE: #D14730;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-WHITE: #FFFFFF;--weui-BG: #FFFFFF;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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#3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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#74A800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and 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255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-170: #052D4D;--weui-INDIGO-80: #40ABFF;--weui-INDIGO-90: #28A0FF;--weui-INDIGO-BG-100: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-BG-110: #0B6BB7;--weui-INDIGO-BG-130: #09548F;--weui-INDIGO-BG-90: #2585D1;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-100: 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