“被低估”的PMI回升:制造业需求加快修复,企业预期继续向好_腾讯新闻

################################################ \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content"\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_ERROR_6_3I2I1--\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 24px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: contents" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: contents" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: left"\u003e作    者:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: left"\u003e赵  伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: left"\u003e屠  强 资深高级宏观分析师\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: left"\u003e联系人:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: left"\u003e屠  强、耿佩璇\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003csection style="text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-top: 10px; vertical-align: top; width: 20px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: transparent; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: -10px; vertical-align: top; width: 20px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: transparent; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-left: -10px; margin-top: 10px; min-width: 5%; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128); letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 3; padding-left: 20px; padding-right: 20px; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128)"\u003e摘要\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); border-style: solid solid double; border-width: 1px 1px 0px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; vertical-align: top; width: 98%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e事件:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月30日,国家统计局公布11月PMI数据,制造业PMI为50.3%、前值50.1%;非制造业PMI为50%、前值50.2%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 50, 150); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 50, 150)"\u003e核心观点:需求修复加快,企业预期继续向好。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月制造业PMI回升幅度弱于季节性,而剔除“供应商配送时间”逆指标影响后,实际PMI涨幅扩大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e2017年来,11月制造业PMI较10月平均上涨0.4个百分点,而今年11月制造业PMI仅较上月回升0.2pct。PMI表现偏弱,主要是天气因素消退导致供应商配货指数回升。剔除该逆指标影响后,实际PMI涨幅扩大,边际回升0.4pct至50.4%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="margin-top: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e拆分结构看,制造业需求加快修复,内需、新出口订单指数均有明显改善。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e制造业PMI指数回升主要源于需求端,11月新订单指数回升0.8pct至50.8%,回升幅度好于往年同期(0.6个百分点)。其中,内需订单指数涨幅显著,环比上升0.8pct至51.2%。新出口订单环比增加0.8pct至48.1%,可能与供应链境外重组、新模式下的“抢出口”有关。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-top: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e内需走强主要源于“两新两重政策”加速落地,支撑消费品、高技术制造业景气回升,但地产投资仍拖累高耗能行业PMI走弱。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e分行业看,消费品制造业PMI涨幅显著(+1.3pct),或与“两新”政策加速落地有关;高技术制造业PMI环比增加1.1pct,主要受“两重”项目加快投资的提振。相比之下,地产投资较弱,拖累高耗能行业PMI回落0.1pct。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-top: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e展望后续:企业预期积极改善,政策也对需求形成支撑,但关税提前加征的风险增大,后续仍需关注增量政策的对冲效果。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,企业预期继续转好,制造业与服务业经营预期指数环比分别回升0.7、1.1pct至54.7%、57.3%;且前期稳增长政策效果持续显现,内需整体保持稳健修复。但近期特朗普宣布将对中国所有商品加征10%的税,加征节奏、范围与幅度超过市场预期,出口风险加大,后续仍需关注增量政策对加征关税的对冲效果。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 50, 150); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 50, 150)"\u003e常规跟踪:制造业景气上行,非制造业PMI位于临界点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="margin-top: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e制造业:制造业产需回升,PMI延续上涨。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,制造业PMI延续上涨,环比增加0.2个百分点至50.3%。主要分项中,供需两端均有回升,生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.4、0.8个百分点至52.4%、50.8%。此外,原材料库存持平上月(48.2%)、保持韧性。从业人员、供应商配送指数贡献为负,环比分别减少0.2、增加0.6pcts至48.2% 50.2%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="margin-top: 8px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e需求修复带动企业采购活动回升,制造业库存有所回升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,外需改善幅度大于内需,新出口订单指数环比增加0.8pct至48.1%,在手订单、进口订单指数涨幅相对较小,环比分别增加0.2、0.3pcts至45.6%、47.3%。需求好转下,采购量指数涨至扩张区间,环比增加1.7pct至51%;,产成品库存指数环比增加0.5pct至47.4%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="margin-top: 8px"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e非制造业:服务业景气持平前月,非制造业PMI位于临界点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,非制造业PMI边际下滑0.2pct至50%。其中,服务业PMI持平前月(50.1%),其中新订单指数较上月回落1.4pct至46.4%。建筑业生产进入淡季,PMI指数降至收缩区间,环比下滑0.7pct至49.7%。主要分项中,新订单指数仍处收缩区间,持平前月。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 8px; outline: 0px; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-start" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="outline: 0px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px; border-left: 5px solid rgb(0, 50, 150); color: rgb(0, 50, 150); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; font-size: 15px; height: auto; min-width: 10%; outline: 0px; padding-left: 9px; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 50, 150)"\u003e风险提示\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.8; outline: 0px; padding-left: 10px; padding-right: 10px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 14px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e外部环境变化,房地产形势变化,稳增长政策推进速度不及预期。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 0; margin-bottom: -13px; margin-top: -5px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; height: auto; line-height: 0; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: center; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-top: 10px; vertical-align: top; width: 20px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: transparent; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: -10px; vertical-align: top; width: 20px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: transparent; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-left: -10px; margin-top: 10px; min-width: 5%; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128); letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 3; padding-left: 20px; padding-right: 20px; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 2px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128)"\u003e报告正文\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e      \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 16px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e事件:\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e11月30日,国家统计局公布11月PMI指数,制造业PMI为50.3%、前值50.1%;非制造业PMI为50%、前值50.2%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="transform-origin: center center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-top: 10px; vertical-align: top; width: 20px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-bottom: 1px double rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-left: -10px; margin-top: 10px; min-width: 5%; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="transform: translate3d(4px, 0px, 0px)" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128)"\u003e1.核心观点:需求修复加快,企业预计继续向好\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 8px 0px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px; text-indent: 2em" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月制造业PMI回升幅度弱于季节性,而剔除“供应商配送时间”逆指标影响后,实际PMI涨幅扩大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e2017年来,制造业PMI 11月读数多较10月上行,平均涨幅在0.4个百分点左右,而今年11月制造业PMI仅较10月回升0.2pct至50.3%。制造业PMI表现偏弱,主要是供应商配货指数的拖累;该指数采用逆指标统计,指标上升说明供应配送时间缩短,需求走弱。但11月新订单指数回升,供应商配送时间指数也有上涨(+0.6pct至50.2%);该现象或更多缘于天气等因素扰动消退,而非需求走弱。剔除逆指标影响后,实际PMI涨幅扩大,边际回升0.4pct至50.4%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e拆分结构看,制造业需求加快修复,内需、新出口订单指数均有明显改善。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e制造业PMI指数回升主要在于需求端,11月新订单指数自今年5月份来首次升至扩张区间(+0.8pct至50.8%),回升幅度好于往年同期(0.6个百分点)。其中,内需改善明显,11月内需订单指数较前月上升0.8pct至51.2%。新出口订单指数也环比增加0.8pct至48.1%,该指数回升可能与境外供应链重组、新模式下的“抢出口”有关;即出口企业与新兴国家加速协同,通过提前重组境外供应链,规避潜在关税加征的风险。高频指标亦显示,仅考虑外贸的港口货物吞吐量延续上涨,较10月上升2.2%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e内需走强主要源于“两新两重政策”加速落地,支撑消费品、高技术制造业景气回升,但地产投资仍拖累高耗能行业PMI走弱。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e从统计局公布的四大类行业PMI来看,消费品制造业PMI指数反弹幅度显著,边际上行1.3个百分点至50.8%,这或与“两新”政策加速落地有关。高技术制造业受“两重”项目加快投资的提振,其PMI指数也有明显回升,环比增加1.1个百分点至51.2%。此外,装备制造业保持扩张,PMI指数持平前月、录得51.3%。相比之下,高耗能行业PMI指数回落0.1个百分点至49.2%,仍处收缩区间,显示出地产投资仍然较弱。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e另外,服务业PMI保持扩张,但建筑业PMI自2021年来首次降至收缩区间,亦指向地产投资下行压力较大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,服务业PMI持平前月(50.1%),继续保持在扩张区间。从行业看,信息技术服务、资本市场服务等行业商务活动指数均位于55%以上较高景气区间;而受国庆假期效应消退等因素影响,与居民出行消费相关的零售、住宿、餐饮等行业商务活动指数有不同程度回落。对比之下,地产投资拖累下,建筑业PMI回落至荣枯线以下(-0.7个百分点至49.7%),为2021年来最低值。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_6--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e展望后续:企业预期积极改善,政策也对需求形成支撑,但关税提前加征的风险增大,后续仍需关注增量政策的对冲效果。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,企业预期继续向好,制造业与服务业经验预期指数均有上涨,环比分别回升0.7、1.1个百分点至54.7%、57.3%;前期稳增长政策效果也在持续显现,内需整体保持稳健修复。但近期特朗普宣布将对中国所有商品加征10%的关税,加征节奏早于市场预期的同时,加征商品范围也远超过往四批清单;且10%的加征幅度与目前中国对美出口的加权关税税率基本持平,出口下行风险加大,后续仍需关注增量政策对加征关税的对冲效果。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_7--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-flow: row; justify-content: flex-start; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; background-color: rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-top: 10px; vertical-align: top; width: 20px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62)"\u003e\u003cspan style="background-color: transparent"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-bottom: 1px double rgb(39, 62, 128); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; height: auto; margin-left: -10px; margin-top: 10px; min-width: 5%; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="transform: translate3d(4px, 0px, 0px)" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px; text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(39, 62, 128)"\u003e2. 常规跟踪:制造业景气上行,非制造业PMI位于临界点\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.8; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e制造业:制造业产需回升,PMI延续上涨。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,制造业PMI延续上涨,环比增加0.2个百分点至50.3%。主要分项中,供需两端均有回升,生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.4、0.8个百分点至52.4%、50.8%。原材料购进价格大幅回落的背景下,原材料库存持平上月(48.2%)、保持韧性。对比之下,从业人员指数小幅回落,环比减少0.2个百分点至48.2%。供应商配送指数贡献为负,环比增加0.6个百分点至50.2%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_8--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e需求修复带动企业采购活动回升,制造业库存有所回升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,外需改善幅度大于内需,新出口订单指数环比增加0.8个百分点至48.1%,在手订单、进口订单指数涨幅相对较小,环比分别增加0.2、0.3个百分点至45.6%、47.3%。需求好转下,企业采购意愿明显回升,采购量指数涨至扩张区间,环比增加1.7个百分点至51%;制造业库存有所回升,产成品库存指数环比增加0.5个百分点至47.4%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_9--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_10--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e非制造业:服务业景气持平前月,非制造业PMI位于临界点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,非制造业PMI边际下滑0.2个百分点至50%。其中,服务业PMI持平前月(50.1%),继续保持着扩张区间。细分行业中,互联网软件及信息技术服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均位于55.0%以上较高景气区间。而受国庆假期效应消退等因素影响,与居民出行消费相关的零售、住宿、餐饮等行业商务活动指数不同程度回落。相比之下,建筑业施工进入淡季,PMI指数降至收缩区间,环比下滑0.7个百分点至49.7%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_11--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e假期效应虽有消退,但服务业市场预期明显回升,支撑PMI指数保持在扩张区间。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,服务业主要分项中,受假期效应消退的影响,新订单指数对服务业PMI较上月回落1.4个百分点至46.4%。但业务活动预期指数为57.3%,较上月上升1.1个百分点,为近5个月以来高点。细分行业看,航空运输、邮政等行业的业务活动预期指数均高于65.0%。高频数据显示,11月,国内、国际执行航班架次同比分别增加4.2%、48.9%;邮政业务揽收、投递量同比分别增加24.9%、27.5%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_12--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_13--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 1.8; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 8px; text-indent: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e建筑业景气回落,主要受价格拖累。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e11月,建筑业主要分项中,价格对PMI指数的拖累较为显著,投入品、销售品价格指数环比分别减少7.2、3.5个百分点至48%、48.6%。高频指标显示,11月南华工业品黑色指数延续回落,环比减少16.9%。此外,新订单指数、从业人员指数仍处收缩区间,分别持平前月、较前月回落2个百分点至40.7%。11月映射建筑业景气变化的沥青开工率指标仍处近年同期低位。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="image-box"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_14--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_15--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 8px; outline: 0px; text-align: left" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: flex-start" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="outline: 0px; text-align: justify" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="display: inline-block; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="align-self: flex-start; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px; border-left: 5px solid rgb(0, 50, 150); color: rgb(0, 50, 150); display: inline-block; flex: 0 0 auto; font-size: 15px; height: auto; min-width: 10%; outline: 0px; padding-left: 9px; vertical-align: top; width: auto" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="letter-spacing: 1px"\u003e\u003cspan style="font-size: 15px"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 50, 150)"\u003e风险提示\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="margin-bottom: 8px" data-exeditor-arbitrary-box="wrap"\u003e\u003csection style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.8; outline: 0px; 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