######################## \u003cdiv class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection"\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cbr mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cbr mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003cbr mpa-from-tpl="t"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cbr mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; outline: 0px; vertical-align: middle; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cbr mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="background-color: rgb(241, 241, 241); font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin-bottom: -5px; margin-top: -5px; outline: 0px; transform: scale(0.86); transform-origin: center center; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="color: rgb(46, 46, 46); font-size: 15px; line-height: 2; outline: 0px; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 2em; outline: 0px; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); letter-spacing: 0.578px"\u003e除了关税政策，特朗普的减税、能源政策和可能持续的科技封锁将对中国造成一定影响，但或许程度相对温和\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp powered-by="xiumi.us" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cbr mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px; visibility: visible"/\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="color: rgb(75, 75, 75); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 1; outline: 0px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; line-height: 2em; outline: 0px; user-select: text; visibility: visible"\u003e\u003cbr style="letter-spacing: 0.578px"/\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e文｜沈建光 樊磊 姜传钺\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.034em"\u003e美国共和党总统候选人特朗普以压倒性优势赢得美国大选并且帮助共和党同时拿下参众两院，可谓强势归来。金融市场对特朗普在竞选期间提出的多项政策主张，如大范围加征关税、进一步减税等也有所反应。\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e大选结果出炉之后，美元指数创出一年多以来新高，人民币汇率则承压下行，中国股票市场的反弹也受到压制。面对特朗普回归，中国应该如何应对？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="16" mp-original-line-height="25" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="15" mp-original-line-height="24" mpa-from-tpl="t" powered-by="xiumi.us" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 24px"\u003e\u003cp style="clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: left"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 32px; text-align: left"\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 67, 135)"\u003e\u003cstrong mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e关税政策仍有较大不确定性\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e笔者在此前的文章中指出，特朗普的政策主张存在五大内生矛盾，包括加征关税扰乱供应链，不利于提振美国制造业；关税、减税等政策引发通胀上行；赤字扩张可能影响美国宏观稳定；美国优先削弱美国的国际领导地位；驱逐移民扩大美国分裂。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e在这种情况下，笔者以为特朗普对中国的一些极端政策，例如对所有中国产品加征60%关税的政策未必能够完全落地。如前文所述，在全球供应链高度一体化的情况下，大幅加征关税会冲击美国本土制造业。此外，美国的通胀压力也会制约特朗普政府的政策空间。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e更有可能的场景是中美通过贸易谈判来弥合双方的分歧。即使特朗普加征关税，时间节点也可能偏晚，加征的范围与税率都明显低于竞选时期的主张。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e实际上，2016年特朗普竞选时期就宣称对中国产品加征45%的关税，但是最终落地平均关税水平是15.5%，有一些产品继续维持了零税率。特朗普2017年还威胁对墨西哥制造但是瞄准美国市场的德国和日本汽车公司加征35%的关税，最后也没有落地。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-align: justify"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="16" mp-original-line-height="25" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="15" mp-original-line-height="24" mpa-from-tpl="t" powered-by="xiumi.us"\u003e\u003cp style="clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: left"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 32px"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="17" mp-original-line-height="27" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 32px; text-align: left"\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 67, 135)"\u003e\u003cstrong mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e极端情况对中国的影响\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e当然，在极端情况下，特朗普的关税政策和取消“永久正常贸易关系”等措施短期对中国的总需求可能有相当冲击；即使如此，从中期而言，伴随着中国出口部门的灵活调整，冲击影响会明显弱化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e特朗普的极端主张包括对中国所有出口产品征收高达60%的关税，取消中国“永久正常贸易关系待遇”，并逐步停止从中国进口必需品。此外，他还计划阻止中国购买美国房产和各类产业；即使是中国汽车制造商在墨西哥生产并出口到美国的汽车，也要征收高额关税。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: center"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px"\u003e（2024年9月28日，在广西南宁举办的第21届中国-东盟博览会上，人们观看制造业项目。图/中新）\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e如果包含从中国香港的转口，2023年中国对美国出口占GDP（国内生产总值）比重约3.2%；综合考虑加工贸易进口同步减少、汇率贬值对冲，以及溢出效应等多方面因素的影响，笔者估计如果美国关税完全落地或取消“永久正常贸易关系待遇”，对中国总需求的冲击可能超出2018年的水平。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e2018年，在美国仅仅对部分中国产品加征相对温和的关税的情况下，中国出口增速从2018年前三季度的10%以上迅速降至2019年的零增长附近。与此同时，美国占中国出口比重也从2018年的19.2%大幅降至2019年的16.8%。实际上，部分受到中美贸易摩擦的影响，2018年上半年中国GDP增速保持在6.9%，2019年下半年则降至5.9%，回落幅度达到1个百分点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e不过，从中长期看，行政手段相对市场力量的较量并不占优；出口部门是中国最具灵活性、市场化程度最高的部门，可以通过多种方式应对关税壁垒。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e一方面，在政策的支持下，中国企业加大出海力度，实现全球布局，绕开美国壁垒。例如，近些年中国对东盟的直接投资显著上升。2023年中国对东盟的直接投资高达251.2亿美元，达到历史新高。越南的表现尤其引人瞩目。中美贸易和新冠疫情强化了外商投资持续流入越南的趋势，2023年越南FDI（跨境直接投资）注册资本为185亿美元，创历史最高水平。除了日韩投资之外；中国诸多制造业企业也将越南作为躲避美国关税、转移生产的首选目的地。从出口产品结构来看，中国中间产品的出口份额持续上升，也在一定程度上反映出中国企业全球化布局的影响。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e另一方面，中国出口企业也通过产业升级、贴牌转口等方式继续维持自身的市场份额。笔者注意到，被认为最容易实现产业链转移的劳动密集型产品，在中国的出口份额中也并未明显下滑。一线的反馈显示，即使是服装、鞋子等传统行业，单个产品的附加值都在明显上升。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e从较长期的数据来看，中国经济的开放度并未因为美国关税的影响而下降；2023年中国货物和服务出口占GDP的比重甚至高于2018年。中国商品在全球出口市场的份额也同样较2018年有所增长，反映出口部门保持了强劲竞争力。从出口结构看，东盟替代美国和欧盟成为中国第一大贸易伙伴。即使从中美贸易来看，2023年中国商品占美国进口市场的份额较2018年确实有所下降，但绝对规模仍然超出2018年的水平；从中国对美国的贸易顺差来看，2023年的3361亿美元也高于2018年的3233亿美元。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; text-align: justify"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="16" mp-original-line-height="25" mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="15" mp-original-line-height="24" mpa-from-tpl="t" powered-by="xiumi.us"\u003e\u003cp style="clear: both; min-height: 1em; text-align: left"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection mpa-from-tpl="t" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 32px"\u003e\u003csection mp-original-font-size="17" mp-original-line-height="27" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 32px; text-align: left"\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 67, 135)"\u003e\u003cstrong mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e其他政策对中国的影响\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e除了关税政策，特朗普的减税、能源政策和可能继续持续的科技封锁也可能对中国造成一定影响，但程度相对温和。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e首先，特朗普的减税政策可能在短期提振美元，可能在一定程度上造成中国本币贬值和资本外流的压力，影响投资和消费。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e资金流出和风险偏好下降可能导致国内股票、地产等资产价格等承压，通过财富效应制约消费增长；而美国真实利率上行可能吸引更多资本，中国外商直接投资下降、对外直接投资上升的趋势可能有所强化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e其次，特朗普主张加快美国石油天然气开采进程并取消拜登政府对清洁能源的补贴，可能降低原油价格，压低中国\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003eCPI\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e（消费者价格指数）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e特朗普认为美国通胀主要受到能源价格的影响，因而要扩大国内能源生产，鼓励化石燃料使用，并实现美国通胀回落。考虑到“页岩油革命”之后，美国已经是世界最大的原油生产国，特朗普政策对全球原油市场的影响不容忽视。对中国的CPI而言，原油是除了食品之外对CPI影响最大的单一商品。如果原油价格下跌，不仅仅与原油相关的CPI交通、通讯分项会有下行压力，油价还会通过投入产出关系和通胀预期影响中国核心CPI的价格。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e最后，特朗普可能会继续推行拜登政府的“小院高墙”战略，限制美国的高科技产品和技术流入中国，不利于中国的产业升级。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e实际上，在特朗普第一任期上，对中国的高科技产品和技术的管制就已经明显加强。例如，2018年，美国就修订了《出口管制改革法案》，进一步强化了美国商务部以“安全”名义对美国出口实施管制的权限，美国商务部据此将更多中国科技企业纳入“实体清单”，强化对科技产品和技术出口的审查力度。2020年5月美国出台“外国直接产品”规则，直接指向美国之外的其他国家和地区的半导体公司，禁止这些公司利用源自美国的十六类技术及软件的设备和产品，出口给“实体清单”上的企业。拜登政府提出的“小院高墙”战略实际上是对特朗普政策的进一步优化和加强。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e考虑到中美战略竞争的大背景，特朗普政府可能继续继承拜登政府的政策。而且，不排除管制范围进一步扩大的可能。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style="text-align: left"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_6--\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(0, 67, 135)"\u003e\u003cstrong mpa-from-tpl="t"\u003e中国如何应对\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e笔者以为，面对特朗普政府归来对中国的短期冲击，一方面中国应该适当增加从美国的进口，争取贸易谈判化解双方分歧；另一方面，中国需要加大逆周期调节力度，特别是加大财政刺激力度稳定总需求。中长期而言，中国更需要集中精力做好自己的事情，扩大开放，推动改革，提升综合国力。这才是对于特朗普归来的最好回应。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e在中美第一阶段贸易协议中，中方同意从美国增加农产品、能源和制成品的进口，后来因为疫情冲击，协议并未有效执行。中方可以通过国有企业增加对美采购等方式，增加对美国的进口，缓解中美贸易不平衡的压力。与此同时，中国应该争取与美国谈判解决贸易方面的分歧，最大程度降低美国加征关税的范围和幅度。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e此外，外部的不确定性和通缩压力也意味着国内逆周期调剂的政策仍需加强。考虑到汇率贬值已经约束货币政策放松的空间，财政政策需要在稳增长中发挥更大的作用。已经推出的总额12万亿元地方债务置换安排取得了良好的效果，不仅仅金融和财政风险下降，地方政府现金流改善还可以通过偿还企业欠款和补发公务员工资的方式改善企业的经营状况和居民的可支配收入，推动需求回升，市场信心也有所改善。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_ARTICLE_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e但是当下财政刺激的力度仍有不足，2025年一般公共预算进一步扩大赤字、扩大专项债和特别国债的发行规模仍然是必要的。此外，与财政刺激的规模相比，财政刺激的投向可能更加重要，除了继续扩大“以旧换新”支持消费品和设备更新，更大力度提升低收入人群补贴，乃至大范围发放消费券直接刺激消费，都应该是应对特朗普冲击的后备选项。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e中期而言，面对外部压力，中国可以在四个层次上加以应对：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e首先，应该坚持自由贸易的取向，继续推动中国和其他国家的经贸往来，为美国市场空间缩小之后出口部门的调整创造便利条件。对中国出口企业开拓新市场可能面对的一些风险，财政部门可以在符合国际规则的情况下，通过对出口信保实施补贴等措施适当帮助企业分担成本。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e其次，应该继续加大支持中国企业全球布局。即使在美国对华采取极端措施的情况下，美国对所有国家产品同时加征关税的可能性也比较低。海外布局有利于中国企业降低风险。一个值得关注的问题是需要改革对地方政府的考核机制，从GDP转向GNP（国民生产总值）。中国海外投资的回报和外派中国公民的工资都算作GNP，而不算作GDP。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e第三，鉴于全球贸易自由化的重点正在从货物转向服务和投资和数字贸易、从关税等“边境措施”转向公平竞争等“境内制度要求”，中国应该积极参与新一代经贸协定（如CPTPP）的谈判，以开放促改革，推动国内扩大投资准入、增加服务业开放、所有制竞争中性等体制改革，并加快发展数字经济。这些改革的进展，不仅会使得贸易部门更好地参与国际分工，也会提升中国整体经济竞争力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style="line-height: 2em"\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 15px"\u003e最后，在2024年中国货物贸易盈余即将创出历史新高、贸易盈余占GDP比重反弹之际，中国还需要推动收入分配改革、完善社保制度、提振内需和消费、降低过剩储蓄。在房地产部门经历深度调整之后、找到经济新引擎既有利于中国经济增长，也有利于中国经济实现对外部的“再平衡”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px"\u003e（作者沈建光为京东集团首席经济学家，樊磊为研究总监，姜传钺为宏观研究员；编辑：王延春）\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_7--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.578px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; text-align: center"\u003e\u003cspan style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; outline: 0px"\u003e责编 | 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#E14949;--weui-RED-BG-100: #CF5148;--weui-RED-BG-110: #D3625A;--weui-RED-BG-130: #DD847E;--weui-RED-BG-90: #B94840;--weui-SECONDARY-BG: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-SEPARATOR-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-SEPARATOR-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-STATELAYER-HOVERED: rgba(0, 0, 0, .02);--weui-STATELAYER-PRESSED: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-STATELAYER-PRESSEDSTRENGTHENED: rgba(0, 0, 0, .2);--weui-YELLOW-100: #FFC300;--weui-YELLOW-120: #FFCF33;--weui-YELLOW-170: #FFECB2;--weui-YELLOW-80: #CC9C00;--weui-YELLOW-90: #E6AF00;--weui-YELLOW-BG-100: #EFB600;--weui-YELLOW-BG-110: #F0BD19;--weui-YELLOW-BG-130: #F3CC4D;--weui-YELLOW-BG-90: #D7A400;--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-RED: #FA5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #FF6146;--weui-ORANGE: #FA9D3B;--weui-YELLOW: #FFC300;--weui-GREEN: #91D300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95EC69;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06AE56;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1485EE;--weui-PURPLE: #6467F0;--weui-LINK: #576B95;--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #FA9D3B;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06AE56;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-WHITE: #FFFFFF;--weui-BG: #FFFFFF;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]{--weui-BG-0: #EDEDED;--weui-BG-1: #F7F7F7;--weui-BG-2: #FFFFFF;--weui-BG-3: #F7F7F7;--weui-BG-4: #4C4C4C;--weui-BG-5: #FFFFFF;--weui-BLUE-100: #007DBB;--weui-BLUE-120: #3FBEFF;--weui-BLUE-170: #B7E6FF;--weui-BLUE-80: #0C8BCC;--weui-BLUE-90: #0E9CE6;--weui-BLUE-BG-100: #48A6E2;--weui-BLUE-BG-110: #5AAFE4;--weui-BLUE-BG-130: #7FC0EA;--weui-BLUE-BG-90: 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-170: #052D4D;--weui-INDIGO-80: #40ABFF;--weui-INDIGO-90: #28A0FF;--weui-INDIGO-BG-100: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-BG-110: #0B6BB7;--weui-INDIGO-BG-130: #09548F;--weui-INDIGO-BG-90: #2585D1;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-100: 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#BF9100;--weui-YELLOW-BG-110: #AB8200;--weui-YELLOW-BG-130: #866500;--weui-YELLOW-BG-90: #C59C1A;--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-RED: #FA5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #FF6146;--weui-ORANGE: #C87D2F;--weui-YELLOW: #CC9C00;--weui-GREEN: #74A800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, 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#023A1C;--weui-BRAND-80: #38CD7F;--weui-BRAND-90: #20C770;--weui-BRAND-BG-100: #2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND-BG-130: #1D7A48;--weui-BRAND-BG-90: #3EB575;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-0_5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: 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